Ce papier rassemble dix articles publiés entre avril et septembre 2020 dans une série de publications en ligne lancée par la Fondation Genshagen, intitulée « Acting European? The European Union and the Weimar Triangle in the Coronavirus Crisis ». Cette série se proposait de mettre en lumière les réponses et solutions politiques destinées à surmonter les effets à long terme de la pandémie de coronavirus, tant dans les pays du Triangle de Weimar qu’au niveau de l’UE.
Dans ce papier, Hans Kundnani et Michał Kuź portent un regard circonstancié sur l’avenir de l’Occident en ces temps de turbulences politiques mondiales. Après avoir présenté différentes conceptions de l’« Occident », ils examinent les dimensions interne et externe de la crise que, selon eux, la communauté de valeurs occidentale traverse actuellement. À leurs yeux, les relations entre les trois États du Triangle de Weimar reflètent certains des clivages propres à cette crise. Il est impératif que l’Allemagne, la France et la Pologne parviennent à régler leurs différends pour que le Triangle de Weimar puisse contrer la menace d’une fragmentation de l’Occident, que les auteurs considèrent comme un scénario d’avenir possible.
After a bumpy start, the EU has drawn up a comprehensive response to the global Covid-19 pandemic by activating multilateral forums and providing assistance to third countries in need. If EU decision-makers can avoid the instinct of withdrawal that occurred during the sovereign debt crisis a decade ago, the coronavirus crisis also offers an opportunity for the Union to enhance its support for its neighbourhood and the Global South and, in so doing, to increase its global standing in a new geopolitical environment.
The foreseeable economic recession calls for a collective European response in a spirit of solidarity into which France and Germany have injected fresh impetus. However, beyond financial commitments and corresponding mechanisms, European solidarity must be backed by a strong and tangible political commitment in order to shape public opinion as well as a geopolitical strategy.
The notion of national sovereignty has regained importance in recent years, both on the international stage and within the EU. The current coronavirus crisis appears, at least at first sight, to be another example of the comeback of strong nation states. However, on closer inspection, a more nuanced picture emerges: as nation-state action is becoming increasingly ineffective in the medium and long term, the need for European (shared) sovereignty is being reinforced.
The coronavirus crisis is accelerating a paradigm shift in European integration. Freedom as the organising principle of the EU was in retreat even before the pandemic when liberalisation, openness and liberal democracy came under strain in many countries. Restrictions imposed to tackle Covid-19 are reinforcing this trend. Concerns that some of these restrictions may remain in place beyond the pandemic are legitimate, particularly in the case of countries that are abusing the crisis to achieve autocratic overreach. The EU will need to find new ways to defend its legal order based on freedom.
The coronavirus crisis has affected the countries of the Weimar Triangle to varying degrees. Bilateral relations between Germany and Poland as well as Germany and France have been strongly influenced by border closures, which have led to tensions between the countries. Although Franco-German relations seem to be gaining momentum after years of relative gridlock, the lack of Franco-Polish cooperation as well as common initiatives led to the complete invisibility of the Weimar Triangle. At this point, new ways of thinking are urgently needed if the Triangle is to fulfil its raison d’être.
Germany is emerging from the first phase of the pandemic with some scars, but broadly in good shape. Like most European countries, it was late in addressing the threat posed by the virus and in “thinking European” in its response. Its six-month EU presidency starting in July is bound up with unique challenges as re-opening internal borders and restarting the European economy may well determine whether the Union can hold together. In order to drive the EU’s economic and social recovery forwards, Berlin needs to present a compelling vision for a green and digital post-pandemic Europe worth striving for.
France is one of the countries that has been worst affected by Covid-19 in the European Union, pushing its healthcare system and its economic resilience to the brink. The current crisis rapidly put the government under severe pressure and once again tested French citizens' confidence in the executive. The French approach to this multidimensional crisis, which has had a strong European focus so far, could also be an opportunity for the government to inject fresh impetus into the country's European policy and to help strengthen the European Union as an actor in the current crisis.
The Covid-19 pandemic has hit Poland in a difficult period. The issue of postponing the presidential election, originally scheduled for 10 May, has led to significant tensions in an already deeply polarised political scene. While decision-makers were quick to introduce restrictive measures, they have questioned the efficacy of the solutions to the Covid-19 crisis proposed by the EU. However, in spite of the political rhetoric of self-sufficiency, Poland needs greater EU solidarity, especially when it comes to economic challenges.
Beyond its immediate effects as a global health crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic poses manifold political and economic challenges for the EU and its member states. Previous crises have shown that the EU's crisis management is dominated by intergovernmentalism and often limited to damage control. Nevertheless, common institutions and procedures such as those of the eurozone offer clear added value for the limited capacities of each member state and will make a difference in the long run.
Début février 2020, le président français Emmanuel Macron s'est rendu en Pologne pou la première fois durant son premier quinquennat. En réaction à une détérioration des relations entre Paris et Varsovie ces dernières années, cette visite a concrétisé les efforts opérés pour créer une nouvelle dynamique dans les relations bilatérales des deux pays. À la lumière de la visite de Macron en Pologne, Jérôme Heurtaux, Elsa Tulmets et Pawel Zerka examinent l'état actuel des relations franco-polonaises, souvent considérées comme le maillon faible du triangle de Weimar, et font quelques suggestions concrètes sur la manière dont ces relations pourraient être revitalisées.
